Astros add Figueroa among host of moves
Baseball Betting Lines
07/21/2010 -
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros have claimed pitcher Nelson
Figueroa off waivers from the Philadelphia Phillies.
The team also claimed infielder Anderson Hernandez off waivers from the
Cleveland Indians. To make room on the roster for both players, Houston has
designated pitchers Gary Majewski and Polin Trinidad for assignment.
Figueroa was designated for assignment by the Phillies on July 15 after making
13 appearances, including one start, during two different stints with the
team. The veteran right-hander was 2-1 with one save and a 3.46 earned run
average.
Over the course of eight seasons with Arizona, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, the New York Mets and Philadelphia, he is 15-29 with a 4.47 ERA and a pair of saves.
Hernandez, who was designated for assignment on July 18, batted .246 with two
runs batted in over 22 games for the Tribe this season. He has spent parts of
six seasons in the big leagues with the Yankees, Nationals and Indians and is
a .245 hitter with four home runs and 59 RBI.
Majewski made two relief appearances for Houston since joining the team on
Monday and gave up five runs in two innings.
Trinidad has spent all season at Triple-A Round Rock and is 3-6 with a 4.55
ERA in 19 outings, 16 as a starter.
Houston has 10 days to trade, release or assign outright the contracts of
Majewski and Trinidad.
The Astros also announced that right-handed pitcher Casey Daigle has cleared
waivers and has accepted his assignment to Round Rock. He had been designated
for assignment on Monday.
The team also optioned infielder Oswaldo Navarro to Round Rock.
<< Michaels lifts Astros over Cubs in 12 innings
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Michaels delivered a tie-breaking, two-
run, pinch-hit double and scored in the 12th inning to lift Houston over
the Chicago Cubs, 4-3, in the rubber match of a three-game set.
Brandon Lyon (6-4)
<< Chivas USA acquires Zizzo through lottery
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sal Zizzo, a 23-year-old U.S. youth
international, is now a member of Chivas USA following a weighted lottery
which took place on Wednesday.
The Goats had the third best chance (16.28 percent)
<< Dodgers' Kershaw, Torre, Schaefer suspended for Tuesday's incident
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball has suspended Dodgers
starter Clayton Kershaw along with manager Joe Torre and bench coach Bob
Schaefer as a result of incidents that occurred in Tuesday's game against the
San Fra
<< Ottawa inks Foligno for two years
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators signed forward Nick
Foligno to a two-year contract on Wednesday.
The 22-year-old Buffalo native slumped in his second full NHL campaign,
recording just nine goals and 26 poin
<< Report: Alabama DE Dareus declared ineligible
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alabama defensive end Marcell Dareus has
reportedly been declared ineligible in the wake of alleged improper dealings
with sports agents.
According to the Tuscaloosa News, it is standard for a player
Thunder sign G Ivey >>
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oklahoma City Thunder have signed
free agent guard Royal Ivey.
As per team policy, no details of the deal were announced.
The 28-year-old Ivey split last season between Philadelphia and Milw
Ducks sign D Syvret >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks signed defenseman Danny
Syvret to a one-year contract on Wednesday.
The 25-year-old Syvret has two goals and three assists in 49 career NHL games
with Edmonton and Philadelphia. His
MacArthur a free agent after Thrashers reject contract decision >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Forward Clarke MacArthur is reportedly a free
agent after the Atlanta Thrashers walked away from an arbitrator's decision on
Wednesday.
According to TSN of Canada, the 25-year-old, a restricted free agen
Finger injury sidelines David Lee for world championships >>
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Golden State Warriors forward David Lee will
miss the upcoming world championships due to an injured middle finger on his
right hand.
Lee, who was acquired in a sign-and-trade deal from the New York Knicks
CFL Previews - July 22-24 - Week Four >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS (1-2) AT MONTREAL ALOUETTES (2-1)
DATE & TIME: Thursday, July 22, 7:30 p.m. (et).
GAME NOTES: Ranked fifth in the most recent power rankings in the CFL, the
Montreal Alouettes
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Big Ten Conference odds
Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
 Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com
Additional sports lines can be found at: www.Sportsbooks.com
To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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