All-UFA Team: The best of the leftovers
Hockey Betting Lines
07/15/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite his surprisingly deliberate search
for a new team, Ilya Kovalchuk is still gaining headlines as the top free
agent left on the NHL's open market.
While it's certainly shocking that we are two weeks into hockey's signing
season and the uber-talented Russian winger has not yet decided on a new
home, it should also be noted that Kovalchuk is far from the only recognizable
unrestricted free agent left to be had.
Kovalchuk would clearly head the list of any All-Free Agent team, but, for our
purposes here, we'll pretend that Kovalchuk has already signed.
First off, his value right now is so much higher than any other available
player that including him on our team would qualify as a no-brainer. Secondly,
so much has already been said about Kovalchuk this summer that I think we are
all suffering from a severe case of "Kovi fatigue". Whether he lands in New
Jersey, LA, St. Petersburg or elsewhere, at this point there is really nothing
left to say about the guy that hasn't already been stated dozens of times
over.
With the requisite Kovalchuk talk out of the way, let's take a look at some
big free agents that have flown under the radar this summer.
LEFT WING
ALEXANDER FROLOV
Like Kovalchuk, Frolov is a talented left winger who should just be entering
the prime of his career. Unlike his countryman, Frolov has been dogged by
criticism concerning his consistency and his frequent offensive dry spells.
Still, while it's clear Frolov is no Kovalchuk, the 28-year-old did manage to
produce 168 goals and 381 points in seven seasons with the Los Angeles Kings.
He also notched 32 goals in 2008-09 before disappointing with just 19 tallies
in 81 games last year for the Kings. Frolov's lapses in production are a big
reason the Kings are in the Kovalchuk race to begin with, but perhaps a fresh
start with a new club could do the former first-round draft pick a world of
good. It remains to be seen whether Frolov's new home will be in North America
or back home in the Kontinental Hockey League.
RIGHT WING
TEEMU SELANNE
Even though he recently turned 40, Selanne's age shouldn't prevent him from
producing should he decide to come back for an 18th NHL campaign in 2010-11.
But it's hard to determine if "The Finnish Flash" is a true free agent or if he
will only re-sign with Anaheim, the city he's called home for the last five
seasons. With Selanne's countryman Saku Koivu signed for two more years,
Selanne will likely only consider offers from the Ducks, who are in a
transitional phase but still have use for this future Hall of Famer. Selanne
has played in just 145 games over the last three seasons, but has produced an
impressive 125 points (66 goals, 59 assists) over that span. Bill Guerin is
another right wing option who is also 40 years old. The American had 21 goals
and 24 assists for Pittsburgh last year and, unlike Selanne, Guerin has shown
that he is open to signing with just about anybody who is interested.
CENTER
MIKE MODANO
The highest-scoring U.S.-born player in NHL history still may opt for
retirement, but if he does return for the 2010-11 campaign it won't be for the
Dallas Stars -- the franchise he's been a part of since being selected first
overall by the Minnesota North Stars in 1988. Modano, 40, saw his minutes
dwindle the last few years in Dallas, but he still managed a decent 14 goals
and 30 points while playing in just 59 games during an injury-plagued 2009-10
season. Detroit has expressed interest in signing Modano, as have the Minnesota Wild, who would certainly give their fans a thrill if they could lure the
future Hall of Famer back to the Twin Cities. Perhaps a return to the North
Star State could rejuvenate his career, but if he is dogged by injuries once
again then it would clearly be time to call it a career.
DEFENSEMEN
WILLIE MITCHELL
Mitchell's 2009-10 season ended in January when he suffered a concussion, and
the 33-year-old has yet to resume skating. Still, his combination of size,
skill and responsible play make him the best all-around defenseman left on the
open market. Mitchell had four goals, eight assists and was a plus-13 for
Vancouver last season and the Canucks clearly missed his steady play on the
back end in the playoffs this past spring. The only reason he is still
available is because of his post-concussion symptoms, but if he makes a
successful return to skating soon it won't take long for NHL suitors to come
calling.
MARC-ANDRE BERGERON
Bergeron offers much more than Mitchell in the offensive zone, but his
defensive lapses are a cause for concern. Despite playing in just 60 regular
season games with Montreal last year, Bergeron still managed to post 13 goals
and 34 points for the Canadiens and also added six points in 19 playoff games
for the Habs. Bergeron's biggest asset is a terrific shot, which makes him a
very valuable weapon on the power play. Still, Bergeron's deficiencies in his
own zone prevent him from being a guy who can log tons of minutes for a
contending team.
GOALTENDER
JOSE THEODORE
Many folks would place Marty Turco ahead of Theodore as the best goaltender
available, but it's clear that Theodore has been the better backstop over the
past few years. Theodore was Washington's main goaltender again last season,
but for a second straight playoffs, head coach Bruce Boudreau opted to switch
to Semyon Varlamov as the No. 1 guy early in the postseason. Boudreau's
decision puzzled me the first time and made just about as much sense this past
spring, but perhaps Theodore could do better on a team that has an interest in
playing defense rather than simply blaming the goaltender when things go bad
in the playoffs. To be fair, Theodore's stellar 62-24-12 record in his two
regular seasons with Washington also had a lot to do with the Capitals' high-
scoring offense, but at 33 years old, the former Hart Trophy and Vezina winner
at least proved he can still carry the load for an NHL team.
<< Unga, Price-Brent taken in supplemental draft
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL's supplemental draft took place on
Thursday and two players were taken -- running back Harvey Unga of BYU and
defensive tackle Josh Price-Brent of Illinois.
Unga was selected by the Chicago Be
<< Lightning re-sign C Jones
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning added some depth to the
forward position on Thursday by re-signing center Blair Jones to a one-year
contract.
Financial terms were not announced.
The 23-year-old appeared in 14 g
<< Oilers sign D Peckham
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Edmonton Oilers have signed defenseman
Theo Peckham to a one-year contract.
Peckham, 22, has played in 31 career NHL games with the Oilers, including a
15-game stint during the 2009-10 campaign.
<< Blue Jackets re-sign Sestito
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Blue Jackets have re-signed
forward Tom Sestito to a one-year contract.
Financial terms of the two-way deal were not disclosed.
Sestito appeared in three games for the Blue Jackets last s
<< Nets ink first-round picks Favors, James
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets signed 2010 first-
round draft picks Derrick Favors and Damion James on Thursday.
The Nets selected Favors with the third overall pick after the 6-foot-10, 246-
pound forward aver
Islanders sign Kohn >>
Bridgeport, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Islanders signed defenseman
Dustin Kohn to a one-year, two-way contract.
Kohn appeared in 22 games with the Islanders last season, his first in the
NHL. He totaled four assists in those
All eyes on Colangelo, Bargnani >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a hot summer in full swing, it's no
surprise that Bryan Colangelo has been busy working up a sweat.
After sending Chris Bosh to the Miami Heat in a sign-and-trade deal that netted
the Toronto Raptors
Mariners sign P Wright among roster moves >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners signed free agent pitcher
Jamey Wright on Thursday, one of three roster moves made by the club.
Pitcher Chris Seddon also had his contract selected from Triple-A Tacoma,
while pitche
Braves place LHP O'Flaherty on DL, recall Dunn >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves placed left-handed reliever
Eric O'Flaherty on the 15-day disabled list on Thursday with a viral
infection.
O'Flaherty has been a stalwart out of the Atlanta bullpen this s
Bruins sign four >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins signed four players on
Thursday, including forward Gregory Campbell.
Campbell is a six-year veteran of the NHL and had played that entire time with
Florida. Over 363 games, he has total
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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